U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00302610 · New York

Frost Dates for Elmira, NY

NOAA weather station Elmira (USC00302610), New York · elevation 947 ft (289 m) · hardiness zone 6a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 21only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 650% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 1150% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season158 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone6acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Elmira, NYSpring: a frost after April 24 in 9 years out of 10, after May 6 in half of the years, after May 21 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 29 in 1 year out of 10, before October 11 in half of the years, before October 27 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 158 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 6First frost ~Oct 11Frost season at Elmira, NYSpring: a frost after April 24 in 9 years out of 10, after May 6 in half of the years, after May 21 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 29 in 1 year out of 10, before October 11 in half of the years, before October 27 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 158 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 6First frost ~Oct 11
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 30 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 21September 29
50% (typical)May 6October 11
90% (likely)April 24October 27
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
158 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 25
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 25

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 5 (1 day earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 16 (5 days later). Frost-free season 164 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Elmira: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 21, 20% May 15, 30% May 11, 40% May 8, 50% May 6, 60% May 3, 70% April 30, 80% April 28, 90% April 24. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 25, 2022 May 8, 2023 May 19, 2024 April 27, 2025 April 18, 2026 May 13.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1Jun 1May 21May 6Apr 242021: April 252022: May 82023: May 192024: April 272025: April 182026: May 13Fall at Elmira: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 29, 20% October 2, 30% October 5, 40% October 8, 50% October 11, 60% October 15, 70% October 18, 80% October 22, 90% October 27. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 4, 2022 October 18, 2023 October 31, 2024 October 11, 2025 October 10.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Sep 29Oct 11Oct 272021: November 42022: October 182023: October 312024: October 112025: October 10
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 25November 4
2022May 8October 18
2023May 19October 31
2024April 27October 11
2025April 18October 10
2026May 13season not over yet

What these dates mean

The cautious fall date for finishing the harvest in Elmira is September 29, when there is a 10% chance a light frost has already arrived. In spring, the cautious date for setting out tender crops is May 21, which carries a 10% chance of a later frost. These two dates frame the period in which tender crops are least likely to encounter the light-frost risk.

The 50% light-frost date in spring is May 6, meaning there is a 50% chance of a frost later than this date, and the 50% light-frost date in fall is October 11, meaning there is a 50% chance of a frost earlier than this date. The median hard-frost dates are April 25 in spring and October 25 in fall; a hard frost at 28 °F can damage plants that survive a light frost at 32 °F, making it the more critical temperature threshold.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 21" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 29" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Elmira, NYNumbered nearest stations: 1 — near Elkland, PA — 18 mi; 2 — Canton, PA — 31 mi; 3 — near Ithaca, NY — 31 mi; 4 — Towanda, PA — 31 mi; 5 — Binghamton, NY — 44 mi.25 mi · 40 km1. near Elkland, PA — 18 mi12. Canton, PA — 31 mi23. near Ithaca, NY — 31 mi34. Towanda, PA — 31 mi45. Binghamton, NY — 44 mi5
  1. near Elkland, PA 18 mi (29 km)
  2. Canton, PA 31 mi (50 km)
  3. near Ithaca, NY 31 mi (50 km)
  4. Towanda, PA 31 mi (51 km)
  5. Binghamton, NY 44 mi (71 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 6a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 42.0997, -76.8358.