U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00216547 · Minnesota

Frost Dates near Crosslake, MN

NOAA weather station Pine River Dam (USC00216547), Minnesota · elevation 1250 ft (381 m) · hardiness zone 4a*

Crosslake is the nearest town to the station (0.7 mi away) in GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). The dates below are measured at the station, not in the town itself.

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 19only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 650% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 750% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season152 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone4acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season near Crosslake, MNSpring: a frost after April 26 in 9 years out of 10, after May 6 in half of the years, after May 19 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 24 in 1 year out of 10, before October 7 in half of the years, before October 20 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 152 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 6First frost ~Oct 7Frost season near Crosslake, MNSpring: a frost after April 26 in 9 years out of 10, after May 6 in half of the years, after May 19 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 24 in 1 year out of 10, before October 7 in half of the years, before October 20 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 152 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 6First frost ~Oct 7
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 29 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 19September 24
50% (typical)May 6October 7
90% (likely)April 26October 20
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
152 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 29
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 18

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 4 (2 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 10 (3 days later). Frost-free season 156 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring near Crosslake: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 19, 20% May 15, 30% May 11, 40% May 9, 50% May 6, 60% May 4, 70% May 3, 80% April 30, 90% April 26. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 29, 2022 April 28, 2023 May 4, 2024 April 21, 2025 April 21, 2026 May 11.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1Jun 1May 19May 6Apr 262021: May 292022: April 282023: May 42024: April 212025: April 212026: May 11Fall near Crosslake: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 24, 20% September 29, 30% October 1, 40% October 4, 50% October 7, 60% October 10, 70% October 12, 80% October 16, 90% October 20. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 21, 2022 September 28, 2023 October 29, 2024 October 15, 2025 October 24.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Sep 24Oct 7Oct 202021: October 212022: September 282023: October 292024: October 152025: October 24
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 29October 21
2022April 28September 28
2023May 4October 29
2024April 21October 15
2025April 21October 24
2026May 11season not over yet

What these dates mean

May 19 is the cautious spring date for the Crosslake area, with only a 10 % chance that a light frost will occur later, allowing a gardener to set out tender crops with relatively low risk.

The 50 % spring date is May 6, meaning there is an even chance of a frost after that point, while the median hard-frost date is April 29, which signals when a 28 °F event becomes as likely as not. In the fall, September 24 serves as the cautious date to finish harvesting tender crops, because only a 10 % chance exists that a light frost will have arrived earlier; the 50 % fall date is October 7 and the median hard-frost date is October 18. A hard frost at 28 °F can damage plants that would survive a light frost at 32 °F.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 19" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 24" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Crosslake, MNNumbered nearest stations: 1 — near East Gull Lake, MN — 21 mi; 2 — Brainerd, MN — 23 mi; 3 — Leech Lake, MN — 40 mi; 4 — Park Rapids, MN — 48 mi; 5 — near Grand Rapids, MN — 49 mi.MN25 mi · 40 km1. near East Gull Lake, MN — 21 mi12. Brainerd, MN — 23 mi23. Leech Lake, MN — 40 mi34. Park Rapids, MN — 48 mi45. near Grand Rapids, MN — 49 mi5
  1. near East Gull Lake, MN 21 mi (35 km)
  2. Brainerd, MN 23 mi (37 km)
  3. Leech Lake, MN 40 mi (65 km)
  4. Park Rapids, MN 48 mi (77 km)
  5. near Grand Rapids, MN 49 mi (79 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 4a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 46.6694, -94.1089.