U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00311975 · North Carolina

Frost Dates for Concord, NC

NOAA weather station Concord (USC00311975), North Carolina · elevation 700 ft (213 m) · hardiness zone 8a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 16only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 150% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 250% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season215 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Concord, NCSpring: a frost after March 16 in 9 years out of 10, after April 1 in half of the years, after April 16 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 21 in 1 year out of 10, before November 2 in half of the years, before November 15 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 215 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 1First frost ~Nov 2Frost season at Concord, NCSpring: a frost after March 16 in 9 years out of 10, after April 1 in half of the years, after April 16 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 21 in 1 year out of 10, before November 2 in half of the years, before November 15 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 215 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 1First frost ~Nov 2
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 16October 21
50% (typical)April 1November 2
90% (likely)March 16November 15
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
215 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 20
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 13

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 1 (same as the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 2. Frost-free season 215 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Concord: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 16, 20% April 11, 30% April 6, 40% April 3, 50% April 1, 60% March 30, 70% March 26, 80% March 21, 90% March 16. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 22, 2022 April 11, 2023 April 12, 2024 April 7, 2025 April 14, 2026 April 10.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1Apr 16Apr 1Mar 162021: April 222022: April 112023: April 122024: April 72025: April 142026: April 10Fall at Concord: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 21, 20% October 25, 30% October 28, 40% October 31, 50% November 2, 60% November 5, 70% November 8, 80% November 12, 90% November 15. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 5, 2022 October 19, 2023 November 2, 2024 November 21, 2025 November 1.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Oct 21Nov 2Nov 152021: November 52022: October 192023: November 22024: November 212025: November 1
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 22November 5
2022April 11October 19
2023April 12November 2
2024April 7November 21
2025April 14November 1
2026April 10season not over yet

What these dates mean

Setting out tender crops on the early spring date, March 16, carries a 90% chance of a frost and is therefore a gamble for Concord gardeners. A more cautious plan waits until the late spring date, April 16, when only a 10% chance of a frost remains. The 50% date is April 1; there is a 50% chance of a frost later than this date.

In the fall, finishing tender crops by the early date, October 21, leaves a 10% chance that a frost has already arrived, making it the prudent choice. Pushing harvest to November 15 raises the risk to 90%, a gamble. The fall 50% date is November 2; there is a 50% chance of a frost earlier than this date. The median hard-frost dates are March 20 in spring and November 13 in fall.

Hard frost at 28 °F poses a greater threat than a light frost at 32 °F because the lower temperature can damage plant tissue that survives a milder chill.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 16" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 21" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Concord, NCNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Salisbury, NC — 20 mi; 2 — Salisbury 9 WNW, NC — 20 mi; 3 — near Charlotte, NC — 25 mi; 4 — Statesville, NC — 32 mi; 5 — Lexington, NC — 35 mi.SC25 mi · 40 km1. Salisbury, NC — 20 mi12. Salisbury 9 WNW, NC — 20 mi23. near Charlotte, NC — 25 mi34. Statesville, NC — 32 mi45. Lexington, NC — 35 mi5
  1. Salisbury, NC 20 mi (32 km)
  2. Salisbury 9 WNW, NC 20 mi (32 km)
  3. near Charlotte, NC 25 mi (40 km)
  4. Statesville, NC 32 mi (52 km)
  5. Lexington, NC 35 mi (56 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 35.4111, -80.5833.