U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00201492 · Michigan

Frost Dates for Cheboygan, MI

NOAA weather station Cheboygan (USC00201492), Michigan · elevation 588 ft (179 m) · hardiness zone 5b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 25only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 1150% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 1150% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season152 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone5bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Cheboygan, MISpring: a frost after April 29 in 9 years out of 10, after May 11 in half of the years, after May 25 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 24 in 1 year out of 10, before October 11 in half of the years, before October 27 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 152 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 11First frost ~Oct 11Frost season at Cheboygan, MISpring: a frost after April 29 in 9 years out of 10, after May 11 in half of the years, after May 25 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 24 in 1 year out of 10, before October 11 in half of the years, before October 27 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 152 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 11First frost ~Oct 11
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 26 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 25September 24
50% (typical)May 11October 11
90% (likely)April 29October 27
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
152 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 30
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 22

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 11 (same as the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 18 (7 days later). Frost-free season 158 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Cheboygan: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 25, 20% May 21, 30% May 18, 40% May 14, 50% May 11, 60% May 9, 70% May 5, 80% May 2, 90% April 29. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 14, 2022 May 6, 2023 April 28, 2024 May 5, 2025 May 10, 2026 May 12.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1Jun 1May 25May 11Apr 292021: May 142022: May 62023: April 282024: May 52025: May 102026: May 12Fall at Cheboygan: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 24, 20% October 1, 30% October 4, 40% October 7, 50% October 11, 60% October 13, 70% October 17, 80% October 21, 90% October 27. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 23, 2022 October 1, 2023 October 24, 2024 October 10, 2025 October 10.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Sep 24Oct 11Oct 272021: October 232022: October 12023: October 242024: October 102025: October 10
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 14October 23
2022May 6October 1
2023April 28October 24
2024May 5October 10
2025May 10October 10
2026May 12season not over yet

What these dates mean

The cautious fall date in Cheboygan for finishing the harvest is September 24, when there is only a 10 % chance a light frost has arrived.

For light frosts, the 50 % spring date is May 11, indicating a 50 % chance of a frost later than this day, and the 50 % fall date is October 11, indicating a 50 % chance of a frost earlier than this day. The two 32 °F 50 % dates are May 11 and October 11, a span of 152 days measured over 26 years of record. A cautious spring plan would wait until May 25 to set out tender crops, while a cautious fall plan would aim to complete tender-crop harvest by September 24.

A hard frost at 28 °F is more damaging than a 32 °F light frost because it can freeze plant tissue that survives the milder temperature.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 25" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 24" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Cheboygan, MINumbered nearest stations: 1 — Pellston, MI — 17 mi; 2 — Onaway, MI — 21 mi; 3 — Cross Village, MI — 26 mi; 4 — Petoskey, MI — 31 mi; 5 — Vanderbilt, MI — 33 mi.25 mi · 40 km1. Pellston, MI — 17 mi12. Onaway, MI — 21 mi23. Cross Village, MI — 26 mi34. Petoskey, MI — 31 mi45. Vanderbilt, MI — 33 mi5
  1. Pellston, MI 17 mi (27 km)
  2. Onaway, MI 21 mi (33 km)
  3. Cross Village, MI 26 mi (42 km)
  4. Petoskey, MI 31 mi (50 km)
  5. Vanderbilt, MI 33 mi (54 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 5b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 45.6528, -84.4725.