U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00281351 · New Jersey

Frost Dates for Cape May, NJ

NOAA weather station Cape May 2 NW (USC00281351), New Jersey · elevation 20 ft (6 m) · hardiness zone 8a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter April 15only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 150% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostNovember 950% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season222 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone8acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Cape May, NJSpring: a frost after March 19 in 9 years out of 10, after April 1 in half of the years, after April 15 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 26 in 1 year out of 10, before November 9 in half of the years, before November 26 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 222 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 1First frost ~Nov 9Frost season at Cape May, NJSpring: a frost after March 19 in 9 years out of 10, after April 1 in half of the years, after April 15 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 26 in 1 year out of 10, before November 9 in half of the years, before November 26 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 222 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 1First frost ~Nov 9
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 29 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)April 15October 26
50% (typical)April 1November 9
90% (likely)March 19November 26
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
222 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 19
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 23

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 2 (1 day later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost November 11 (2 days later). Frost-free season 223 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Cape May: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% April 15, 20% April 10, 30% April 7, 40% April 4, 50% April 1, 60% March 30, 70% March 28, 80% March 24, 90% March 19. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 March 21, 2022 March 30, 2023 April 10, 2024 March 24, 2025 March 11.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1Apr 15Apr 1Mar 192021: March 212022: March 302023: April 102024: March 242025: March 11Fall at Cape May: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 26, 20% November 1, 30% November 3, 40% November 6, 50% November 9, 60% November 12, 70% November 15, 80% November 19, 90% November 26. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 20, 2022 November 15, 2023 November 2, 2024 November 27, 2025 November 23.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Nov 1Dec 1Oct 26Nov 9Nov 262021: November 202022: November 152023: November 22024: November 272025: November 23
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021March 21November 20
2022March 30November 15
2023April 10November 2
2024March 24November 27
2025March 11November 23
2026no dataseason not over yet

What these dates mean

Planting tender crops on March 19 in Cape May carries a 90% chance of a light frost later in the season, making that early spring date a gamble for growers.

The median light-frost date, where the odds are even, is April 1 in spring and November 9 in fall; they are not frost dates themselves. The cautious spring date for setting out tender crops is April 15, which has only a 10% chance of a later frost, while the cautious fall date to finish harvesting tender crops is October 26, also with a 10% chance of an earlier frost. The 50% hard-frost dates are March 19 in spring and November 23 in fall, and the record shows 222 days between the two 32 °F 50% dates.

A hard frost at 28 °F is more damaging than a light frost at 32 °F because it can kill tissue that survives a milder chill.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after April 15" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 26" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Cape May, NJNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Millville, NJ — 29 mi; 2 — Estell Manor, NJ — 30 mi; 3 — Dover, DE — 33 mi; 4 — Atlantic City (Airport), NJ — 40 mi; 5 — Seabrook Farms, NJ — 40 mi.NJMDPA25 mi · 40 km1. Millville, NJ — 29 mi12. Estell Manor, NJ — 30 mi23. Dover, DE — 33 mi34. Atlantic City (Airport), NJ — 40 mi45. Seabrook Farms, NJ — 40 mi5
  1. Millville, NJ 29 mi (47 km)
  2. Estell Manor, NJ 30 mi (49 km)
  3. Dover, DE 33 mi (54 km)
  4. Atlantic City (Airport), NJ 40 mi (64 km)
  5. Seabrook Farms, NJ 40 mi (64 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 8a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 38.9533, -74.9361.