U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00211263 · Minnesota

Frost Dates for Canby, MN

NOAA weather station Canby (USC00211263), Minnesota · elevation 1210 ft (369 m) · hardiness zone 5a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 14only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 250% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 550% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season156 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone5acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Canby, MNSpring: a frost after April 20 in 9 years out of 10, after May 2 in half of the years, after May 14 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 23 in 1 year out of 10, before October 5 in half of the years, before October 19 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 156 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 2First frost ~Oct 5Frost season at Canby, MNSpring: a frost after April 20 in 9 years out of 10, after May 2 in half of the years, after May 14 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 23 in 1 year out of 10, before October 5 in half of the years, before October 19 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 156 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 2First frost ~Oct 5
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 14September 23
50% (typical)May 2October 5
90% (likely)April 20October 19
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
156 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 24
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 17

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 2 (same as the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 9 (4 days later). Frost-free season 160 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Canby: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 14, 20% May 10, 30% May 7, 40% May 4, 50% May 2, 60% April 30, 70% April 28, 80% April 24, 90% April 20. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 11, 2022 April 28, 2023 April 26, 2024 April 21, 2025 April 30, 2026 May 6.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1May 14May 2Apr 202021: May 112022: April 282023: April 262024: April 212025: April 302026: May 6Fall at Canby: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 23, 20% September 28, 30% October 1, 40% October 2, 50% October 5, 60% October 8, 70% October 11, 80% October 15, 90% October 19. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 21, 2022 September 28, 2023 October 11, 2024 October 15, 2025 October 22.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Sep 23Oct 5Oct 192021: October 212022: September 282023: October 112024: October 152025: October 22
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 11October 21
2022April 28September 28
2023April 26October 11
2024April 21October 15
2025April 30October 22
2026May 6season not over yet

What these dates mean

May 14 is the cautious spring date in Canby, allowing a gardener to plan setting out tender crops with only a 10% chance of a later light frost. The earlier date of April 20 carries a 90% chance and would be a gamble.

The 50% date is May 2; there is a 50% chance of a frost later than this date. In the fall, September 23 is the cautious date for finishing harvest of tender crops, offering a 10% chance that a light frost has already arrived, while the later date of October 19 bears a 90% chance and is a gamble. The 50% date is October 5; there is a 50% chance of a frost earlier than this date.

Hard frost, recorded at 28 °F, is more damaging than a light frost at 32 °F, and its median dates are April 24 in spring and October 17 in fall.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 14" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 23" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Canby, MNNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Madison, MN — 20 mi; 2 — Clear Lake, SD — 20 mi; 3 — Marshall, MN — 29 mi; 4 — Milan, MN — 33 mi; 5 — Brookings, SD — 37 mi.MNSD25 mi · 40 km1. Madison, MN — 20 mi12. Clear Lake, SD — 20 mi23. Marshall, MN — 29 mi34. Milan, MN — 33 mi45. Brookings, SD — 37 mi5
  1. Madison, MN 20 mi (33 km)
  2. Clear Lake, SD 20 mi (33 km)
  3. Marshall, MN 29 mi (47 km)
  4. Milan, MN 33 mi (52 km)
  5. Brookings, SD 37 mi (59 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 5a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 44.7183, -96.2697.