U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00441209 · Virginia

Frost Dates for Burkes Garden, VA

NOAA weather station Burkes Garden (USC00441209), Virginia · elevation 3068 ft (935 m) · hardiness zone 6b*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 26only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostMay 950% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 650% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season150 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone6bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Burkes Garden, VASpring: a frost after April 23 in 9 years out of 10, after May 9 in half of the years, after May 26 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 20 in 1 year out of 10, before October 6 in half of the years, before October 20 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 150 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~May 9First frost ~Oct 6Frost season at Burkes Garden, VASpring: a frost after April 23 in 9 years out of 10, after May 9 in half of the years, after May 26 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before September 20 in 1 year out of 10, before October 6 in half of the years, before October 20 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 150 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~May 9First frost ~Oct 6
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 30 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 26September 20
50% (typical)May 9October 6
90% (likely)April 23October 20
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
150 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 28
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
October 15

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost May 6 (3 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 10 (4 days later). Frost-free season 155 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Burkes Garden: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 26, 20% May 20, 30% May 16, 40% May 12, 50% May 9, 60% May 5, 70% May 1, 80% April 28, 90% April 23. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 May 16, 2022 May 11, 2023 May 6, 2024 May 14, 2025 June 2, 2026 May 13.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%May 1Jun 1May 26May 9Apr 232021: May 162022: May 112023: May 62024: May 142025: June 22026: May 13Fall at Burkes Garden: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% September 20, 20% September 26, 30% October 1, 40% October 3, 50% October 6, 60% October 8, 70% October 12, 80% October 15, 90% October 20. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 20, 2022 September 28, 2023 October 10, 2024 September 8, 2025 October 9.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Sep 1Oct 1Nov 1Sep 20Oct 6Oct 202021: October 202022: September 282023: October 102024: September 82025: October 9
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021May 16October 20
2022May 11September 28
2023May 6October 10
2024May 14September 8
2025June 2October 9
2026May 13season not over yet

What these dates mean

September 20 is the cautious fall date for finishing the harvest, with only a 10 % chance that a light frost has arrived earlier. In spring the cautious date for setting out tender crops is May 26, when the risk of a light frost later in the season is also 10 %; planting before the early April 23 date carries a 90 % gamble.

The 50 % light-frost dates, May 9 and October 6, mark the points at which a light frost is equally likely to occur or not, while the 50 % hard-frost dates, April 28 and October 15, show when a hard frost (28 °F) is an even-odds event. Gardeners can use these median dates to understand the central tendency of frost risk across the 30-year record.

A hard frost matters more than a light frost because the lower temperature can cause far greater damage to tender plant tissue.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 26" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before September 20" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Burkes Garden, VANumbered nearest stations: 1 — Wytheville, VA — 16 mi; 2 — Richlands, VA — 25 mi; 3 — Saltville, VA — 28 mi; 4 — Pulaski, VA — 31 mi; 5 — Mullens, WV — 34 mi.KYNC25 mi · 40 km1. Wytheville, VA — 16 mi12. Richlands, VA — 25 mi23. Saltville, VA — 28 mi34. Pulaski, VA — 31 mi45. Mullens, WV — 34 mi5
  1. Wytheville, VA 16 mi (26 km)
  2. Richlands, VA 25 mi (41 km)
  3. Saltville, VA 28 mi (45 km)
  4. Pulaski, VA 31 mi (49 km)
  5. Mullens, WV 34 mi (54 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 6b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 37.0908, -81.3364.