U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USW00013877 · Tennessee

Frost Dates near Bristol, TN

NOAA weather station Bristol Tri City Airport (USW00013877), Tennessee · elevation 1500 ft (457 m) · hardiness zone 7b*

Bristol is the nearest town to the station (14.7 mi away) in GeoNames (CC BY 4.0). The dates below are measured at the station, not in the town itself.

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 5only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 1650% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2450% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season190 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7bcalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season near Bristol, TNSpring: a frost after March 30 in 9 years out of 10, after April 16 in half of the years, after May 5 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 11 in 1 year out of 10, before October 24 in half of the years, before November 4 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 190 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 16First frost ~Oct 24Frost season near Bristol, TNSpring: a frost after March 30 in 9 years out of 10, after April 16 in half of the years, after May 5 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 11 in 1 year out of 10, before October 24 in half of the years, before November 4 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 190 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 16First frost ~Oct 24
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 28 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 5October 11
50% (typical)April 16October 24
90% (likely)March 30November 4
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
190 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
April 1
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 1

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 14 (2 days earlier than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 26 (2 days later). Frost-free season 194 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring near Bristol: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 5, 20% April 27, 30% April 22, 40% April 19, 50% April 16, 60% April 13, 70% April 9, 80% April 5, 90% March 30. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 23, 2022 April 20, 2023 April 10, 2024 April 22, 2025 April 17, 2026 May 15.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1May 5Apr 16Mar 302021: April 232022: April 202023: April 102024: April 222025: April 172026: May 15Fall near Bristol: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 11, 20% October 15, 30% October 18, 40% October 21, 50% October 24, 60% October 26, 70% October 29, 80% November 1, 90% November 4. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 October 27, 2022 October 18, 2023 November 1, 2024 October 17, 2025 October 23.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 11Oct 24Nov 42021: October 272022: October 182023: November 12024: October 172025: October 23
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 23October 27
2022April 20October 18
2023April 10November 1
2024April 22October 17
2025April 17October 23
2026May 15season not over yet

What these dates mean

Setting out tender crops on the early spring date of March 30 carries a 90 % chance that a light frost will still occur, so that choice is a gamble for growers in the Bristol area.

The spring light-frost 50 % date is April 16, the point at which there is an even chance of a frost later, and the fall light-frost 50 % date is October 24, the point at which there is an even chance of a frost earlier. These dates do not themselves mark a frost but simply split the risk in half for a gardener planning around light-frost events.

A cautious plan uses the May 5 date, which has only a 10 % chance of a later light frost, for starting tender crops in spring, and the October 11 date, which has only a 10 % chance of an earlier light frost, for finishing them in fall. A hard frost (28 °F) matters more than a light frost because it can injure or kill plants that would survive a 32 °F event.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 5" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 11" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Bristol, TNNumbered nearest stations: 1 — Kingsport, TN — 8 mi; 2 — Elizabethton, TN — 12 mi; 3 — Erwin, TN — 23 mi; 4 — Abingdon, VA — 28 mi; 5 — Rogersville, TN — 32 mi.TNVANCKY25 mi · 40 km1. Kingsport, TN — 8 mi12. Elizabethton, TN — 12 mi23. Erwin, TN — 23 mi34. Abingdon, VA — 28 mi45. Rogersville, TN — 32 mi5
  1. Kingsport, TN 8 mi (12 km)
  2. Elizabethton, TN 12 mi (19 km)
  3. Erwin, TN 23 mi (37 km)
  4. Abingdon, VA 28 mi (45 km)
  5. Rogersville, TN 32 mi (52 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7b: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 36.4731, -82.4044.