U.S. Frost Dates by Weather Station

NOAA station USC00150397 · Kentucky

Frost Dates for Bardstown, KY

NOAA weather station Bardstown 5 E (USC00150397), Kentucky · elevation 780 ft (238 m) · hardiness zone 7a*

  • Lower-risk planting dateafter May 3only 1 spring in 10 still has a frost later
  • Typical last frostApril 1350% chance of a frost after it
  • Typical first fall frostOctober 2550% chance of a frost before it
  • Frost-free season195 daystypical year, 32°F
  • Hardiness zone7acalculated*

The year at a glance

Frost season at Bardstown, KYSpring: a frost after March 29 in 9 years out of 10, after April 13 in half of the years, after May 3 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 13 in 1 year out of 10, before October 25 in half of the years, before November 6 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 195 days.JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecLast frost ~Apr 13First frost ~Oct 25Frost season at Bardstown, KYSpring: a frost after March 29 in 9 years out of 10, after April 13 in half of the years, after May 3 in 1 year out of 10. Fall: the first frost comes before October 13 in 1 year out of 10, before October 25 in half of the years, before November 6 in 9 years out of 10. Typical frost-free season: 195 days.JFMAMJJASONDLast frost ~Apr 13First frost ~Oct 25
frost likely chance fading 90% → 10% frost-free in a typical yearThe year at a glance. Blue: frost is likely; the gradient fades as the chance drops from 90% to 10%; green: the frost-free part of a typical year.

Frost dates (32°F)

Probability of frost, based on 30 years of NOAA records (1991–2020 normals)
ChanceLast frost in spring afterFirst frost in fall before
10% (unlikely)May 3October 13
50% (typical)April 13October 25
90% (likely)March 29November 6
Frost-free season (32°F, 50% chance)
195 days
Hard frost (28°F), last in spring, 50% chance after
March 31
Hard frost (28°F), first in fall, 50% chance before
November 5

The last 15 years (2006–2020 normals)

Typical last frost April 14 (1 day later than the 30-year normal), typical first fall frost October 26 (1 day later). Frost-free season 195 days.

A shorter, more recent NOAA period. The 30-year normals above remain the main reference: 15 years carry more year-to-year noise.

Add these dates to your calendar Yearly reminders for the typical last frost, the lower-risk planting date and the typical first fall frost (.ics).

How the chance of frost changes with the date

Spring at Bardstown: chance of a frost after this dateSpring, chance of a frost after the date: 10% May 3, 20% April 25, 30% April 20, 40% April 16, 50% April 13, 60% April 9, 70% April 6, 80% April 2, 90% March 29. Observed last spring frost in recent years: 2021 April 22, 2022 April 10.Spring: last frostChance of a frost after this date10%50%90%Apr 1May 1May 3Apr 13Mar 292021: April 222022: April 10Fall at Bardstown: chance of a frost before this dateFall, chance of a frost before the date: 10% October 13, 20% October 18, 30% October 21, 40% October 23, 50% October 25, 60% October 28, 70% October 30, 80% November 2, 90% November 6. Observed first fall frost in recent years: 2021 November 3, 2022 October 9.Fall: first frostChance of a frost before this date10%50%90%Oct 1Nov 1Oct 13Oct 25Nov 62021: November 32022: October 9
Two charts, because spring and fall answer different questions: in spring, the chance that a frost still comes after a date; in fall, the chance that the first frost has already come before it. NOAA publishes these odds from 10% to 90%, so the lines stop there. ◆ marks the actual date in each recent year.

What actually happened in recent years

Observed dates of the last spring and first fall frost (32°F) at this station; ◆ marks them on the charts above
YearLast spring frostFirst fall frost
2021April 22November 3
2022April 10October 9
2023incomplete recordno data
2024no datano data
2025no datano data
2026no dataseason not over yet

What these dates mean

Between the two 32°F 50% dates—April 13 in spring and October 25 in fall—Bardstown enjoys 195 days in which light frosts are less likely. Gardeners can use this interval for most planting, pruning, and harvest activities that require temperatures above freezing.

The cautious spring date for setting out tender crops is May 3, when there is only a 10 % chance of a later light frost; planting on March 29 carries a 90 % chance of frost and is a gamble. In the autumn the cautious date to finish harvesting tender crops is October 13, the 10 % chance point, while waiting until November 6 would mean a 90 % chance of an early frost.

The 50% hard-frost dates are March 31 and November 5, and a hard frost at 28 °F can damage or kill plants that survive a light frost at 32 °F.

How to read the probabilities

The dates are probabilities from 30 years of weather, not a forecast for this year.

  • Spring: "10% after May 3" means that in about one spring out of ten a frost still happens after that date. The 90% date is the earliest: a frost after it happens in most years.
  • Fall: "10% before October 13" means that in about one fall out of ten the first frost arrives before that date.
  • 50% is the typical date: half of the years are earlier, half are later.
  • A light frost (32°F) damages tender plants; a hard frost (28°F) also stops most hardy vegetables.

Nearby weather stations

Map of weather stations near Bardstown, KYNumbered nearest stations: 1 — near Shepherdsville, KY — 16 mi; 2 — Louisville, KY — 32 mi; 3 — near Lexington, KY — 45 mi; 4 — Rough River Lake, KY — 63 mi; 5 — Somerset, KY — 64 mi.KYIN25 mi · 40 km1. near Shepherdsville, KY — 16 mi12. Louisville, KY — 32 mi23. near Lexington, KY — 45 mi34. Rough River Lake, KY — 63 mi45. Somerset, KY — 64 mi5
  1. near Shepherdsville, KY 16 mi (26 km)
  2. Louisville, KY 32 mi (51 km)
  3. near Lexington, KY 45 mi (73 km)
  4. Rough River Lake, KY 63 mi (101 km)
  5. Somerset, KY 64 mi (103 km)

Sources

* Hardiness zone 7a: zone derived from PRISM 2023 grid at the station location (not the official USDA map). Source data: PRISM Group, Oregon State University.

Station coordinates: 37.8194, -85.3847.